The Lib Dems after Chesham & Amersham: time to move to the centre

The Times operates a pay wall for its online content. I have been paying £10 a month to access it. So it was a bit upsetting when my email provider decided their newsletters were junk (while being happy with The Guardian and Financial Times). It was rather more upsetting that it took me over a month to notice. Still, I missed regular articles from some of my favourite columnists, especially Matthew Parris. I also regularly read Danny Finkelstein and David Aaronovitch. I sometimes read Melanie Phillips, who, rather alarmingly, I seem to be agreeing with more and more. You may note a distinctly conservative taste for somebody who tends to the left – but I have always believed that you should expose yourself to challenging views. In any case all three of these are liberals in the traditional sense, although that is a bit of a stretch for Ms Phillips.

I have been catching up, with especial interest on the response to the Lib Dems’ astonishing victory in the Chesham & Amersham by-election. Those from Mr Parris and Lord Finkelstein were especially striking. Both acknowledge that the result must give the Conservative leadership pause for thought, but suggest that the deeper questions posed by the result are for the Lib Dems. Lord Finkelstein’s view is made clear in the article’s title: There is no Point to the Liberal Democrats. Some context is helpful here. Like me, Lord Finkelstein’s first political commitment was to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) when it was formed in 1981. Doubtless also like me he had been inclined to be Conservative beforehand, but he was a bit younger (born in 1962 to my 1958). Unlike me, he opposed the SDP’s merger with the Liberal Party in 1987 to form what eventually would be known as the Liberal Democrats. He limped on with the “continuing SDP” with former SDP leader David Owen until he joined the Conservatives in 1990, who made him a peer in 2013. This suggests that like Lord Owen, he has always had a loathing for the Liberals and its successor party, as the little people in British politics, though he hides it a bit better. (Lord Owen always finds some clever reason to oppose anything the Lib Dems support, most notably in the 2011 referendum on electoral reform). Still Lord Finkelstein’s arguments bear hearing out, however painful they are to read for somebody that has given so many years of their life to the party.

The essence of Lord Finkelstein’s argument is as follows:

Here are the problems of the Liberal Democrats. They don’t stand for anything, they don’t stand for anybody, they can’t win and even if they could it would be utterly pointless.

Danny Finkelstein, The Times 22 June 2021

He goes on to say that they are worse than pointless, as they are getting in the way of establishing a coherent opposition to the Conservative Party. Lib Dems like me may protest the party does stand for a clear set of liberal, internationalist and environmentalist values, and that this has become more coherent since the loose coalition assembled by former leaders Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy has fallen apart. He would counter that those same views are also held by many members of the Labour Party, and even the Conservatives, and are not distinctive. More seriously it is clear that local government does not exist in Lord Finkelstein’s world – which is revealing. But the Lib Dems aspire to being more than being a party of local councillors. He is onto something when he points out that the party collapsed when it went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010, its only exercise of real power. This makes it understandable that the party rules out coalition with the Conservatives. But that kills the party’s leverage, and poses the question of why members shouldn’t just join the Labour Party.

Ouch! There are many moments when I have wondered whether my support for the Lib Dems has been futile. I have made a lot of friends (and the party is how I met my wife) – and it has been one of the best ways to meet like-minded people. But I don’t join it as a social club. Sometimes I am simply left with the impact the party has had on other parties by competing with them. It is true that the spectacular by-election victories the party has scored from Orpington in the year of Lord Finkelstein’s birth to this one have led nowhere in the following general elections. But they have often had a big political impact, usually on the Conservatives. Other parties were simply in no position to deliver these shocks. The complacency of Conservatives prior to the latest Chesham & Amersham was quite astonishing, to read some of the things that their supporters had been writing beforehand.

And are we really in the way of forming a coherent opposition to the Tories? And should we really join Labour? I might ask why, if Lord Finkelstein thinks that the Conservatives so badly need such an opposition, and that if joining Labour is the only way to achieve it, why hasn’t he? I joined the SDP as soon as I realised that I wanted it to succeed. My reasons for not wanting to join Labour are probably pretty similar to his; my blood runs cold at the thought of it. I do not want to be a foot soldier in something distinctly ugly (and I would say the same for joining the Conservatives). The alternative for me to being part of the Lib Dems is leaving politics altogether. The reason that Labour can’t form an electorally convincing alternative to the Conservatives (coherence is easier…) lies mainly within that party, and not because it is missing a few more liberal members and activists. Sometimes competition works better than collaboration, even in politics. Would Tony Blair’s New Labour have happened without the SDP split?

Mr Parris’s article Tories need to start caring about the blue wall is ultimately more compelling, though almost as searing in its opinion of the Lib Dems. The article’s main focus is on the Conservatives, and how the current leadership is taking for granted a whole stratum of liberal conservative voters, of which he is one, and which is prominent in Chesham & Amersham. These are repelled by Boris Johnson’s party, and are ripe for the taking. Can the Lib Dems do this outside a fevered by election? Mr Parris is sceptical:

Liberal Democracy has a wonky wheel that, time and again when hard choices loom, wobbles them off the highway and into the ditch of localism, neighbourhood grumbles, government intervention and “whatever’s your gripe is ours too”

Beyond its orange bird, Lib-Demmery has a big yellow streak. Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander and David Laws took the leap into real politics in coalition. But their party seems to have disowned that brave compromise. Are they ready for adult politics again? If they can learn to show steel, to say no to someone, something, anything, then Sarah Green, the new MP for Chesham & Amersham, may approach the next election with a fighting chance. If not, this will be one more by-election we shout about, then forget.

Matthew Parris, The Times 19 June 2021

I often disagree with Matthew Parris, but I think he has it this time. The party has changed since the days of anything-goes in the 2000s. But has it changed enough? How should the party present itself to the electorate, and how can it show that it is interested in adult politics again?

In my previous article I suggested that the by-election showed what the point of the Liberal Democrats was. It was to appeal to Conservative voters whom Labour and the Greens cannot reach, while holding to its liberal values. That means it must champion the centre ground of politics. Lib Dem activists bristle when it is suggested that theirs is a party of the centre, as it implies the party is rootless and defined by the ground that parties of left and right happen to inhabit. But while the core values of the party are not defined by the political centre, core values do not win elections – you have to broaden your appeal. Taking the centre is how the party must do this, and that is how they pulled off this coup. If they are to turn this one-off event into something more substantial, then the party has to stick to this line.

What does that mean, in practice? It means going back to the traditional values of public service that Mr Johnson’s followers (and many in the Labour Party) dismiss as elitist: fair play and tolerance; truth rather than grandstanding; saying sorry every so often. It also means being clear that international cooperation has a big role to play in solving many of the country’s problems – from trade to taxing companies to global security – in contrast to the Tory preference for tub-thumping and “buccaneering”. That’s the easy bit. The party needs to stand up for effective public service, without getting hung up on public ownership, but combining this with a degree of fiscal prudence. This means two things which will be hard. First is not to suggest that spending more public money is the solution to every problem: which means challenging Labour every so often when they do just that. And it means admitting that an ageing population and stronger public services mean higher taxes on everybody, and not just some soft underbelly of rich people and taxes. All these positions may be open to respectable challenge, but this is the approach that will earn credibility amongst centre-ground voters. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party may adopt similar positions in the end, but the Lib Dems can do so with more credibility amongst Conservative voters.

And the party needs to be honest about where they want all this to go. That is taking part in a coalition government, if the coalition as a whole follows largely centrist principles. The party can rule out a coalition with the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, but not necessarily under another leader. But the most likely option is government with a Labour Party that has taken some steps towards a centrist programme itself.

Will the Lib Dems be able to pull this off, and win 30 to 40 seats at the next election? I understand the scepticism of people like Matthew Parris. But I am hoping he is wrong.

What is the meaning of the Chesham and Amersham by election?

What is the point of the Liberal Democrats? This question has been asked often since the party bet big on reversing the Brexit referendum result and lost. Languishing in single digit poll ratings, with only a handful of MPs, a weak brand and a leader who looks like just another white male middle-aged politician, the question was asked rhetorically. It was obvious that the answer was that there wasn’t any. The party would be replaced by some combination of a newly-moderate Labour Party and the Greens. On the eve of the by-election in the safe Conservative seat of Chesham and Amersham bookmakers were still offering odds of only 13-1 that the Lib Dems would win.

But the result showed a different answer to that question. It wasn’t even close. The Conservative vote crashed by 20%; Labour’s by 10% (they only had 11%); the Lib Dems ended up with a big majority. This shows that only the Lib Dems amongst “progressive” parties have a chance of challenging the Tories in their heartlands. Labour is still paying the price for its flirtation with radicalism under Jeremy Corbyn; the Greens do not have the strength and depth of ground organisation, and many Conservative voters find their brand offputting. It is now clear that if the Conservatives’ grip on the Westminster parliament is to be broken, the Lib Dems will have to play their part.

Why did the Conservatives do so badly, when nationally their stock is still riding high? The obvious answer is that the party is focusing on consolidating its hold on its newly won voters in northern England, the Midlands and Wales – the old “red wall”; this leaves the party’s traditional heartlands feeling neglected. By itslef this explanation doesn’t work. Under Boris Johnson’s leadership the party has a sunny “Have your cake and eat it” stance: doing well by the new voters is not meant to be at the expense of the old. After all that is what “levelling up”, the stated aim of their policy, is meant to mean. Something else is annoying the heartlands.

The first, I think, is resentment about Brexit. To old Remain supporters, many of whom were in this consituency, this is not going well, and the arguments made about the damage it would do, dismissed by Brexit supporters like Mr Johnson as “Project Fear”, are turning into facts. Combine this with the many missteps of the government’s response to covid, and there is little love and trust in the government.

There were to more specific issues that the Lib Dems hammered on, once they found they were resonnating. The first was the government’s new planning law proposals, designed to make it easier to build on greenbelt land. Suburban voters such as those in this constituency have a fear of development spoiling their green and pleasant environment. The Lib Dems also want more houses to be built, but suggest that the government’s plans will be a developers’ charter to build poor quality housing (in terms of environmental standards at least) where it is not needed, instead of “community-led” initiatives to build more good-quality affordable and social housing. The second issue was the new HS2 railway from London to Birmingham, which is being built through the area. The Lib Dems support HS2, so once again some political finesse was required. The candidate promised to uphold constituents’ interests in opposing what is seen as a brutal juggernaut not listening to local concerns.

Doubtless Tories will feel that this is more chicanery from the Lib Dems – but it is not as if their party does not delight in chicanery itself. If the roles were reversed they would have had no hesitation in doing the same. That is politics; there are no prizes for holding the high ground. For the Lib Dems a weak brand has its disadvantages: it doesn’t rile floating voters so much and gives more room for manoeuvre. Still the party is only a threat to the Conservatives if it has a local foothold, and that is only patchy. Besides its appeal is now largely restricted to better-educated voters, and the result does not provide evidence of a broadening of their appeal. But where the party already has a foothold, it will be re-energised. The party should also get more attention in the media for a while – after the embarassment of most outlets failing to spot what was happening here, in spite of ample evidence, while giving extensive coverage to the Batley and Spen by election, due on 1 July. The party now needs to make good use of this brief window of opportunity.

For the Conservatives it is a clear sign of danger, though their politcal position remains formidable. Success in British politcs depends to some extent on taking core support for granted while reaching out to more marginal voters. But this is a dangerous exercise, as Mr Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, found in the 2017 election, when she tried to do just that far too blatently. The main point of worry for the government must be those planning reforms. They are going to need far more political skill on housing than they have shown hithertoo if they are to avoid further damage.

Labour’s predicament deserves a post of its own, but for them there is good and bad news. The collapse of their vote shows that their brand is now very weak – after a period when they had often done relatively well in Lib Dem strongholds. The Greens got more than twice as many votes. But there is no evidence that resurgent Lib Dems will undermine them in critical battleground seats, and it also shows that the Conservatives can be put on the defensive. An optimist might suggest that a weakening of the brand is a necessary precursor to de-toxification. The party still needs to be able to fire up its supporters, of course. Talk of a “progressive alliance” of non-Tory parties is premature, however. But Labour strategists will need to let the Lib Dems undermine the Conservative vote somehow.

For now though the Lib Dems can bask in the glory a bit. Their new MP, Sarah Green, is a strong addition to their parliamentary ranks. Remarkably, 8 of the party’s 12 MPs are now female. Quite a reversal from a party that used to be much derided for its failure to get female MPs elected.

It is time for Sadiq Khan to stand up for London

What is the point of Sadiq Khan, London’s Labour Mayor, recently reelected for a second term? He is a powerful symbol of inclusion – a Muslim bus-driver’s son making it to the city’s highest office. After that I struggle. He has acheived little in five years. But now he has an opportunity to make his mark.

Mr Khan’s problems aren’t entirely of his own making. Since his predecessor as mayor, Boris Johnson, took over as Prime Minister in 2019 the national government has been actively hostile. We then discover how little actual power London’s mayoralty has. The situation worsened when the pandemic came along, and Transport for London’s finances collapsed. This one of the few things the mayor is responsible for, but he had to go cap in hand to the government for a bailout. In doing so the government has gone out of its way to humiliate him. Mr Khan has looked like a powerless bleater from the sidelines. But this also reflects Mr Khan’s lack of political skill. He has shown little aptitude in mobilising broad political coalitions to get things done.

But now he has an opportunity: the Daniel Morgan report. This report into the Metropolitan Police was commissioned by Theresa May as Home Secretary in 2013. It looks at the Met’s repeated failings in the case of the murder of Daniel Morgan, a private investigator, in 1987. It was suspected that corrupt policemen were involved. The report is summarised here by the FT’s David Allen Green. It is shocking. It shows the Met as being keener to protect its reputation than to be held accountable. This culture is described as “institutional corruption”. And the report makes it plain that it stretches to the present day, with the inquiry being obstructed by senior police officers, who were as slow as they could be in producing evidence. What is even more significant is that the current Commissioner, Cressida Dick, is deeply implicated in this criticism. Ms Dick is every inch a Met insider, with her fingerprints on numerous police foulups. It is time for her to go and for an outsider to be brought in to replace her. The Met needs a change in management culture and she is n ot the person to do it.

Mr Johnson is not going to support this, and has expressed his confidence in Ms Dick. He is not in favour of public accountability, and likes senior public officials to be beholden to him. He is not directly responsible for appointing or dismissing the Commissioner, though. That is a matter of joint responsibility between the Home Secretary, currently Priti Patel, and the Mayor. Will Ms Patel stand up to her boss? She probably could if she wanted too, as she is one the politically stronger members of the government (whatever one thinks of her record). It is unlikely though. Which leaves Sadiq Khan as mayor.

I doubt that the Mayor has the legal power to sack the Commissioner by himself – but a public statement of loss of confidence would make her position untenable. That would allow him to show that he is standing up to the bullying from government and asserting his new mandate from London voters. There is a risk that Ms Dick could try toughing it out based on Ms Patel’s backing alone – that would be sadly characteristic of the current times. In which case the mayor would need to up the ante and start making the government, and the Force, pay a price. This is what politicians can do. Authority depends on much more than just legal powers.

So it is clear what Sadiq Khan should do. But I expect him to bottle it and serve out the rest of his term as another act of futlity and pointlessness.

How do we live with Covid-19?

As predicted “Freedon Day”, when covid restrictions were due to be lifted, has been postponed from 21 June. And as usual most of the sceptical comment seems to have missed the point. They are suggesting that the government will keep on postponing through dither and indecision. But in fact I thought the government was being quite clear, and there is good reason to think that they will stick with the new proposed date of 19 July, though doubtless some restrictions will be long-term. Meanwhile there is not nearly enough debate on what is an acceptable balance between risk and danger in future while the virus remains prevalent in the world at large – which may well be forever.

The government’s narrative is that the we are in a race between vaccination and the virus. This suggests that there is some kind of equilibrium to be found between the proportion of the population that is vaccinated and the infectivity of the virus, which might bring the reproduction rate to below one, depending on the level of restrictions in place. There is good reason to think that if 75% of the population is vaccinated, then the R rate will stay below one even with most restrictions lifted. The government’s calculation seems to have been that, with the previously dominant Alpha variant, R would be close enough to one on June 23, when 80% vaccination has been reached for one dose. But with infection rates increasing at an alarming rate, this is clearly not true. The now-dominant Delta variant seems to be to blame. They have now calcualted that 75% or more people need both vaccine doses for this equilibrium to be reached.

It isn’t as simple as that of course. There is plenty of evidence that vaccinated people who do become infected do not suffer severe disease, while the mainly younger people who are not vaccinated are less likely to suffer severely too. So we might be able to weather higher infection rates just like we already do for flu. Against this I think two arguments have been accepted. First is that there are still a lot of unknowns about the Delta variant, including whether the earlier assumptions about the vulnerability of younger age groups still hold. India seemed to be less vulnerable than us to covid, mainly it was thought because its population is younger: until it was hit by Delta. Second the NHS is distinctly fragile at the moment. Waiting lists are massive in many places; the Financial Times has reported that many staff are leaving, exhausted by the stress of the last 18 months, and without substantial improvements to pay and conditions on offer. While it is true that the NHS can cope with high levels of flu, that is because it is seasonal – and even then it can be touch and go. So it seems more sensible to wait. Most people agree.

But the most significant thing I picked up from the announcements was that ministers were saying that we must learn to live with the virus, rather than expect that it will be beaten. What does this mean? Hospitalisation rates need to be stable and reasonably low, and likewise deaths. Current levels are surely close enough to this – but the exponental growth of infections is a clear threat. But that comes with significant restrictions on public events, hospitality, social distancing and so on. The big question is whether we can relax all of these. What measures can be kept in place that would reduce risk of infection (and not just from covid), without annoying too many people? Better ventilation standards for public places is an obvious one. I suspect we need to adopt more Asian approaches to mask-wearing (though this is more a metter of social mores than regulation). Certain settings, hospitals and care homes perhaps, will doubtless need higher levels of infection control.

These are the questions we should be asking ourselves. We need to watch and learn from what is happening in the rest of the world. Alas instead we get the usual nonsense about whether lockdowns are evil in principle, or whether the government lost two weeks by not restricting travel from India earlier.