I have been trying to post articles twice a week. In the last few weeks that has slowed down. This week I have struggled to post anything at all. On reflection I think it's time to pause for a while, and reduce postings to a trickle.
Why? Partly it is plain depression - though the non-political side of my life is going well enough. After multiple shocks to the political system, that is not be surprising. I still struggle to accept that Britain is leaving the European Union, that Donald Trump is the US president, and that liberal attitudes are being thrown out in favour of nothing very coherent.
But I think it is deeper than an emotional reaction - I'm afraid I'm an Enlightenment spirit that believes that reason should rule emotion. The world has changed, and the balance of political forces has altered in ways that I have not yet understood. It is tempting to impose oversimplified models on this. For example, it is commonplace to ascribe changes to a reaction of the white working classes. But that can only be a partial explanation - there just aren't enough white working class people for it to be more than that. All successful political movements are coalitions - and it is the unnoticed elements of that coalition that may hold the key. Guilt by liberals over the struggles of many white working class people is being used as a cover for more sinister forces - and some not so sinister ones too.
And if I don't understand what is driving this change, the consequences of change are also obscure. Many bad things are happening as a result of the Trump presidency and Brexit - but some good things might happen too through the law of unintended consequences. Breaking up the old complacent order will force many things to be rethought - and it will not just be liberals who are discombobulated. For example, Mr Trump's recent questioning of the two-state approach to peace in Israel may be no bad thing -as it will force Israel's politicians to be clearer about what it is they actually want - rather than just getting in the way of US policy. In another example, Russia's propaganda narrative about confronting western liberalism loses its power if western liberalism is in retreat. The Russians are having to be careful about what they wish for. And is it too much to hope that ethnic minority campaigners, so long dependent on a narrative of victimhood and guilt, might freshen up their story when the main competing narrative is also one of victimhood and guilt? Perhaps they might spend more time campaigning on problems that they share, rather than on what sets them apart?
And so my reaction to unfolding events is, so often, "wait and see". The interesting stuff has yet to emerge. Here I am departing from many other liberal observers - who are content to vent a very understandable anger. I cling to an optimism. Liberalism is experiencing a backlash that is similar in some ways to that endured in the later 19th Century. That led to calamity - a nationalist blind alley that only ended in 1945 after countless millions were killed. This time I think it is different. There are many more liberals now; our values are more deeply embedded. The forces of darkness are weaker than they look. We will turn the tide. But how, and where? That remains unclear. It will require new ideas - and a new coalition.
And so I want to spend more time reflecting, and less time simply reacting to events. I will post, but less frequently.
I started this blog almost exactly six years ago. Looking back at it, that has been six years of political retreat. The crushing loss of the British referendum on changing the electoral system in 2011 now looks like a portent. I need to need to rearm and rethink to get ahead of the game.